AIADMK likely to face another crisis after decline in vote share

Following AIADMK’s recent setback in the Madurantakam and Dharapuram bypoll, detractors may raise questions about Edappadi K. Palaniswami’s leadership around the time of the party’s Foundation Day on October 17

Published - October 09, 2026 11:17 pm IST - CHENNAI

AIADMK general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami. | Photo Credit: E. LAKSHMI NARAYANAN

With yet another electoral setback in the byelections to Madurantakam and Dharapuram Reserved Assembly constituencies, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK) is lurching towards another challenging phase, perhaps the worst in its 54-year history.

Possibly, around the AIADMK’s Foundation Day (October 17), critics, within and outside, of the party’s general secretary Edappadi K. Palaniswami will launch another salvo against him. They will point out how the organisation, once a dominant force in State politics, is getting weaker day by day. For quite sometime, the talk has been doing rounds in political circles that the AIADMK’s general council, when it is expected to be convened in a few months, will witness a major showdown between supporters of Mr. Palaniswami and his detractors.

On the face of it, the AIADMK’s performance was not that bad, as the party had secured close to one-fourth of votes polled — say, around 25% — in the two constituencies. In Madurantakam, the Dravidian major was handicapped by the neutral stand of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK), which was its ally in the Assembly polls five months ago. As a result, it did not get the advantage that it would have secured otherwise. This could be seen from the fact that during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, when the AIADMK’s position was as good as what it is now, the party’s vote share was 37% whereas it has gone down to 25.61% this time.

When the party retained the seat in the April-May election, its score was 32.58%, which was lower than what the party had secured in 2024, in spite of the alliance with the PMK. However, the presence of the Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) in the scene early this year changed the contours of the electoral battle, making it a fierce triangular contest.

In Dharapuram, the erosion of the AIADMK’s vote share was quite noticeable, as it fell from 32.37% in 2024 and 40% in 2026 (April-May) to about 25% now. The party had won the seat seven times. The TVK, which had a vote share of about 29% five months ago, seems to have grown at the cost of the AIADMK, as the ruling party has got close to 37%.

Former Minister “Pollachi” V. Jayaraman, who worked for the party in the constituency, says the results have shown that the people have not yet come out of “the web of illusion” of the ruling TVK. He expects them to realise the reality sooner rather than later and hopes that under such circumstances, his party will bounce back.

Asked whether the ruling TVK will intensify its efforts to woo the cadre of the AIADMK, the party’s deputy general secretary M. Anandan says there is no need for his party to do so. “The AIADMK’s volunteers have been joining us, and they will continue to join us in future too,” he said.

Asked about the impact of the dissidents’ non-cooperation on the results of the byelections, Mr. Jayaraman says: “One thing is certain: I am like many others who will follow the path being shown by Mr. Palaniswami.” At the same time, there is a view that the rebels’ camp have no leader who can match Mr. Palaniswami. Needless to say, the coming weeks are going to witness several events for the AIADMK.

Published - October 09, 2026 11:17 pm IST

Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam / All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam / state politics / Tamil Nadu

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