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Five headaches Andy Burnham will have to deal with as PM

From defence spending to housing - the next UK leader has a series of challenges to deal with.

Five headaches Andy Burnham will have to deal with as PM

When Andy Burnham enters No 10 Downing Street, he will inherit some formidable and complex problems that successive prime ministers and governments have attempted to address - mostly without success.

BBC Verify has looked at five big policy challenges Burnham will face and the approaches he might take to address them.

Welfare: Cutting £58bn sickness and disability bill

The cost of sickness and disability benefits for people of working age has grown rapidly since the Covid pandemic and now stands at around £58bn a year, external.

And it's projected to rise to £78bn a year by 2030, external.

The biggest driver of the increase is the number of people claiming Personal Independence Payments (Pip) - a working age benefit designed to support people with disabilities that increase their living costs.

The number of people claiming Pip is forecast to rise from four million today, to five million by 2030, external.

The share of people who are younger and claiming Pip for mental health problems or neurodevelopmental disorders such as ADHD is also rising fast.

The previous Conservative government attempted to reform the working age disability welfare system but the cost continued to rise during their time in office, external.

Last year, Sir Keir Starmer's government tried to reduce the Pip bill by £5bn a year by 2030 by tightening eligibility - but had to do a U-turn after a revolt by Labour MPs.

A recent interim report by the disability minister, Sir Stephen Timms, external, co-produced with disability groups, accepts that Pip is "not fit for purpose".

The final Timms report is expected to propose reforms to the system later this year, which Burnham could adopt.

There has been speculation, external this could involve offering young people with mental health problems therapy or other support rather than cash.

But there remains the risk of backlash from disability groups and potentially Labour MPs if the reforms are considered unfair.

Burnham has recently said, external he does want to reduce the welfare bill, but by encouraging people into work and not through "crude cuts".

Defence: Finding £9bn extra a year

After a delay of almost a year, Starmer finally published the government's Defence Investment Plan in June.

This led to an outcry in some quarters because it only took defence spending to 2.7% of GDP by 2030.

And it was not fully funded, requiring savings to be extracted from other Whitehall departments.

The pressure on Burnham to lift defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 from the former defence secretary John Healey, who resigned over the issue, and the defence establishment will continue.

But this would cost an additional £9bn a year relative to the current plans.

Another challenge for Burnham is the new Nato target of raising defence spending to 3.5% by 2035. That would cost an additional £24bn a year relative to current plans.

Some have suggested, external this could be paid for by the Treasury issuing special "war bonds", to avoid the need to raise taxes or cut spending elsewhere.

Another challenge for Burnham if he does spend more on defence is reforming defence procurement - buying and developing planes, ships, vehicles and weapons - which has been historically wasteful.

Of 47 major defence investment spending projects only three were rated "green" by the National Infrastructure & Service Transformation Authority, external in 2025, meaning likely to be successfully delivered on time and at the right quality.

Social care: Two million older people living with unmet care needs

The social care system in England - which is delivered mainly by independent providers rather than the NHS - is widely perceived as underfunded and unfair.

Public funding is means tested and it is estimated, external that there are two million older people in England now living with some unmet need for social care.

And around 10% of people aged 65 and over face lifetime care costs above £100,000 for their care.

Burnham has himself described it as a "broken" system., external

And , externalhe made an attempt to reform it, external when he was health secretary in Gordon Brown's cabinet, though his plan was abandoned after Labour lost the 2010 election.

A government-commissioned report by the economist Andrew Dilnot in 2011, external proposed a state-funded cap on lifetime care costs, of around £35,000, meaning no one would be required to pay more than that to fund their own care.

The principle of a state-funded cap was accepted by Conservative ministers, but the Dilnot system was never implemented.

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