How is the US economy really doing under President Trump?

President Donald Trump has been boasting about the performance of the US economy ahead of the midterm congressional elections, claiming he has boosted incomes, reduced inflation and created jobs.

Trump has repeatedly said: "We have the hottest country anywhere in the world."

While the overall US economy is faring better than many expected after Trump launched his sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs in 2025, there's evidence those import taxes and the impact of the US-Israel war with Iran have pushed up inflation, with the harmful effects felt by most American households.

The US economy is also being helped by an AI investment boom, and could falter if that spending were to dry up.

So how does all this feel for the average American? BBC Verify has looked at whether the evidence supports the president's claims.

The overall US economy is growing at a respectable clip by the country's recent historic standards.

The latest data shows US GDP, external - which is how economists measure the size of the US economy - currently expanding at an annualised rate of 2.2%.

And it has increased by around 3.2% overall since the end of 2024, just before Trump took office for his second term.

That is more growth than any other member of the G7 group of leading economies over that period.

The US growth rate has been faster than was forecast by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), external in the immediate wake of Trump's announcement of a swathe of new tariffs on goods coming into the US on 2 April 2025.

It downgraded its forecasts at the time, citing the negative impact of Trump's import duties on investment and consumer spending.

Though it is important to note that Trump eased the tariffs considerably in the months that followed, reducing the impact that had initially been expected on the economy.

The US economy has also been heavily supported in recent years by American technology companies making massive investments in AI, including by constructing data centres around the country.

Spending on building data centres, external (excluding the IT hardware to go in them) by US businesses in August 2026 was $5bn, almost double the monthly rate when Trump returned to office.

Many American voters wanted to punish Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election, holding him responsible for the pain caused by a significant spike in prices in the wake of the pandemic.

The current rate of US inflation, external is 3.7%.

That's still well down on the recent peak rate of 9% under Biden in 2022, but higher than the 3% rate that Donald Trump inherited in January 2025.

Economists estimate, external US inflation would have been lower without the new tariffs imposed by Trump since he returned to office.

While the impact of the Iran war on global energy prices, with the significant disruption to oil and fuel supplies from the Middle East, has also helped push up US domestic inflation.

The price of a gallon of diesel in the US, external - a fuel used not only by drivers but also widely in agriculture and industry - hit a record high of $6.52 in September.

The price of some grocery staples , externallike beef and coffee have risen since Trump returned to office, though the price of eggs has fallen.

And some US retailers have warned, external that rising energy prices caused by the Iran war will make producing food more expensive and raise prices at the till.

3. Household income growth held back

Average US household incomes are still rising under Trump.

The median income - after adjusting for inflation - rose 2.6% in 2025 to $87,460, the highest on record, external.

However, the Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy (ITEP) think tank has estimated the combined effects of the following, external on US households:

- The expiry of extra government subsidies that had made health insurance cheaper for millions of Americans

- Higher-than-expected price rises during Trump's second term, including those linked to tariffs and the Iran war

ITEP's conclusion is that the middle fifth of households are, on average, around $1,700 worse off in 2026 than they would have been, while the poorest fifth are around $750 worse off.

The richest 1%, by contrast, are estimated to be an average of $12,560 better off than they woud have been, primarily because of Trump's tax cuts.

ITEP's estimates about the impact of tariffs on American households of different income levels are broadly similar to those of the Tax Foundation think tank, external.

4. Job creation slowed down