How the US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border
The US-Canada trade war is being felt on both sides of the border.
The US and Canada appear no closer to resolving their ongoing trade dispute.
Tensions have been simmering between the two neighbours since President Donald Trump returned to the White House just over 18 months ago, and unleashed a wide-ranging global programme of tariffs.
Canada was one of the first countries the Trump administration hit with levies, and is one of two countries to respond with its own reciprocal measures.
Currently, the US has hit Canada's key sectors of steel, aluminium, lumber and automobiles with tariffs, and last week imposed an additional 50% levy on about C$28bn ($20bn; £15bn) of Canadian goods.
Canada has hit back with its own counter-tariffs on American goods, announcing on Tuesday what it calls a "dollar-for-dollar" and "strategic" retaliation designed to match the US tariffs.
With no resolution in sight, how has this enduring trade war affected Canada and the US, and what could come next?
Here are five charts to help break it all down.
Trade war hits Ontario hardest
The tariffs and counter-tariffs have hit some states and provinces harder than others.
In Canada, some provinces have been more exposed to US sectoral tariffs on steel, steel derivatives, aluminium, and autos and vehicle parts that don't comply with the current North American trade deal, known as the USMCA.
Ontario, the most populous province with a significant manufacturing sector, has been hardest hit by the auto and steel tariffs.
Several Ontario auto parts and assembly plants have announced layoffs and production cuts, and the province is estimated to have lost tens of thousands of manufacturing jobs since early 2025.
Metal exports from Quebec - which produces steel, copper and aluminium - fell 36% between February 2025 and 2026, and there was a 3.6% drop in employment in the sector, according to data released in July.
The Royal Bank of Canada estimates that Ontario and Quebec are the most impacted by US sectoral tariffs, while Newfoundland and Labrador, New Brunswick, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Prince Edward Island are the least exposed.
Additional US tariffs on $20bn worth of Canadian goods that came into effect on 22 August are expected to impact all provinces in some way, though British Columbia, Quebec and Ontario will feel the brunt.
Swing states in the cross hairs
The US economy is much larger and the impact of Canada's counter-tariffs won't be as stark.
But some states will feel the pain of Canada's retaliation more than others, with tariffs levied on C$28bn worth of US goods from steel to furniture, cosmetics and toilet paper, as of 8 September.
According to data by Statistics Canada, the swing state of Ohio will be hardest hit, with C$3.2bn - or 12% - of its exports soon to be tariffed by Canada, followed by Illinois and Pennsylvania.
For Ohio, it's the tax on steel that will particularly hurt, as well as the tax on laundry machines. In Illinois, where farm equipment giant John Deere is based, it will be the new tariffs on farm and construction equipment.
Derek Holt, an economist with Scotiabank, noted that Canada's counter-tariffs appear to be "very deliberately oriented" towards some swing states that could decide the US balance of power in the upcoming midterm elections.
From the lowest tariff rates to one with the pack
Prime Minister Carney has assured Canadians that, despite the high-profile trade fight, they face some of the lowest US tariff rates compared to other countries.
But with the latest 50% tariffs imposed on a range of Canadian goods, the average effective US tariff rate on Canada is now higher than Mexico's, and is approaching the rate faced by others like the UK and Vietnam.
An average effective tariffs rate reflects the average tariff paid across all imports.
According to data by the Royal Bank of Canada, external, the average effective US tariff rate on Canada in June was 2.9% - the lowest among major US trade partners. It has now nearly doubled to 5.7%.
By comparison, the US effective tariff on the UK is 6.2%. China still faces the highest US tariffs at an average of around 20.5%.
Canada's exports are going elsewhere
Canada, by the happenstance of being neighbours with the world's largest economy, is hugely reliant on US trade.
Their proximity - and free trade agreements in place since the 1990s - has allowed the two countries to develop one of the world's most deeply economically integrated trading relationships.
The US buys more than 70% of Canadian exports, and is a top US trading partner alongside Mexico and China.
