Tarique Rahman's cancelled Delhi visit says a lot about Bangladesh and its tragic short-sightedness

Bangladesh's own war games treat India as the adversary; India's war games don't feature Bangladesh — only China and Pakistan do. That asymmetry says plenty.

Bangladesh Prime Minister Tarique Rahman was expected in Delhi for three days from August 23rd. That visit has been postponed. The reasons behind it — and what has filled the vacuum since — say a great deal about where India-Bangladesh ties stand today.

At its core, this is the tragic short-sightedness of an under-confident Dhaka establishment prone to imagining threats that don't exist. It has damaged what was an honest, pragmatic attempt to rebuild ties on a durable, mutually beneficial footing. Ahead of the cancelled visit, a top aide to Rahman signalled openness to a so-called ‘Islamic NATO’. At the same time, Dhaka separately demanded India extradite former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina for trial. Neither helps reset a relationship India has invested in since Bangladesh's birth in 1971 — from diesel and onions to vaccines during the pandemic.

Rahman visited Beijing before Delhi, reportedly asking China to manage the Teesta water-sharing project and floating a Yunnan-to-Bangladesh highway via Myanmar. That corridor is fantasy: the relevant stretch of Myanmar is contested territory controlled by the Arakan and Chin armies, not Naypyidaw or Dhaka. China's inroads are real, though — recall how a Chinese-built Pakistani frigate, the PNS Taimur, was cleared for a Bangladesh port call without even informing then-PM Sheikh Hasina, who cancelled it once India objected.

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Junior ministers in Dhaka have floated joining the Saudi-Pakistan-Turkey defence pact signed on August 7. It doesn't hold up to scrutiny. Bangladesh is boxed in by India on three sides and the Bay of Bengal on the fourth; its diesel and onions largely come from India. Pakistan should remember Operation Sindoor. And Turkey has its own headache brewing: Armenia, locked in a centuries-old rivalry with Ankara barely 600 km from its border, is now in talks to acquire India's BrahMos missile — as are Greece and Cyprus. When Houthi strikes hit Saudi and Iranian tankers in the Red Sea, this alliance offered no help. The proof, as ever, is in the eating.

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A Radicalised Neighbourhood

Bangladesh's troubles run deeper than diplomacy. Jamaat-e-Islami is pushing hard for power. Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami, JMB and Islami Chhatra Shibir remain active, alongside Pakistan-linked outfits like Jaish and Lashkar-e-Taiba operating out of Cox's Bazar and Chittagong, with added pressure from the Arakan Army. Blaming India for problems rooted at home isn't a strategy — it's avoidance.

Rahman is reportedly reluctant to even attend the upcoming BRICS summit, despite an Indian invitation, and despite Chinese and Russian leaders confirmed to attend. That's a lost chance to negotiate on counter terrorism, trade, electricity, and transport — leverage Dhaka had and chose not to use.

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Reading The Great Power Game

Both Washington and Beijing have played roles in Dhaka since Hasina's exit — the Yunus-led interim government leaned West, and Chinese influence has grown since. India has told both powers plainly that such interference is counterproductive, pointing to precedents in Nepal, Sri Lanka's Hambantota and the Maldives. India, by contrast, bailed out Sri Lanka's economy, supplied drinking water to the Maldives, sent vaccines to Bangladesh and aided Nepal too — support without strings, unlike the transactional plays of other powers.

Securing The Chicken's Neck

None of this happens in isolation from India's own defences. Home Minister Amit Shah has announced a triangular security grid for the Siliguri Corridor — the 60-km, 21-km-at-its-narrowest strip linking the mainland to the Northeast. New military stations are coming up at Kishanganj (Bihar, at the corridor's mouth), Chopra (West Bengal, at its centre, facing Bangladesh's Rajshahi district) and Dhubri (Assam), backed by the Hashimara air base, the 17 Strike Corps at Panagarh and the 33 Corps at Siliguri. An underground rail-and-road network — 35 km of railway already cleared, with tunnel-based ammunition depots to follow — will reinforce the grid further. The so-called chicken's neck can, if needed, be widened into an elephant's neck, with artillery, air power and missile cover already in place.