Vegetables to get smaller and more expensive due to hot weather, farmers warn

This year's harvest could be the worst on record as farmers warn the exceptionally dry spring and summer could lead to "shrinkflation" in UK supermarkets.

England and Wales saw their driest July since records began 190 years ago, according to the Met Office, and a drought has been declared across large parts of the country.

The Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU) thinktank said the UK's cereals and oilseed harvest could be 2.5 million tonnes less than ​earlier forecasts.

Tim O'Malley, the chairman of Nationwide produce, said it was "as bad as its ever been" and that shoppers will likely see higher prices or smaller vegetables in supermarkets.

The harvest of barley, oats and rapeseed, which are used in beer, breakfast cereals and vegetable oil, is estimated to drop to just 19.5 million tonnes, the worst since records began in 1984.

That is compared with a previous low of 19.8 million tonnes in 2020, and would cost farmers £390m in lost revenue, the ECIU estimated.

The crops are also used for feeding livestock, making them crucial across most of the food chain.

O'Malley said consumers could feel the impact in the vegetable aisle too, where grocers are likely to swap in smaller produce at the same price, which is known as shrinkflation.

"I think we're going to see shrinkflation," he told Radio 5 Live's Wake Up to Money.

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"The problem we're going to have this year is a massive reduction in yield and major quality issues," O'Malley said.

He said that will mean smaller sizes for fresh produce.

"We've got crop with stress or we've got quality issues. So you will see a smaller crop," O'Malley said.

He said supermarkets will "do everything" to keep prices where they are, but added: "eventually they will probably have to come to the party and increase the price, particularly if they start importing."

Grocers are already bringing in more products from abroad because of the poor conditions at home.

"We're importing broccoli and iceberg [lettuce] from Spain at this time of year, which in August [is] unheard of. I think we're going to see more of that, unfortunately," O'Malley said.

He added: "Loud and clear, it's grim out there. I think it's as bad as it's ever been … Every record is being broken.

"The difference in this year and last year, last year we had four heat waves. But in between them we had a bit of rain."

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Farmers source additional water for their crops and livestock over summer from a combination of stored winter rainfall on site, and by extracting it from natural sources - a process called abstraction.

This can be from groundwater or from surface water, like rivers and streams.

This summer has seen significant low rainfall affecting the amount of water available to draw from.

Half of England and all of Wales have been declared to be in drought conditions by the Environment Agency.

Wales has received just 8% of its average rainfall so far this month. England has received 7% of its average, with that figure as low as 1% across southern England.

The high temperatures and repeated heatwaves have also increased evaporation rates which have particularly hit rivers.

Climate change is expected to bring more severe, frequent and longer-lasting heatwaves in UK summers in the coming years - which could bring more water shortages for farmers.

Tom Lancaster, land, food and farming analyst at the ECIU said: "At the start of spring farmers were hopeful of a better year, but the dry April and July and record-breaking heat have left farmers facing down the barrel of a third awful harvest in a row.

"Farming is now the sector most exposed to climate change and the risks and damage that it brings."

Martin Lines, head of the Nature Friendly Farming Network and a farmer from Cambridgeshire, said this year's harvest "has been a real kick in the teeth".

"After two terrible harvests in a row, the crops this year were looking good and full of potential coming out of spring, only for months of drought and heatwaves to destroy any prospect of a decent harvest," he said.

"I've never known it this dry and hot on our farm.

"Even farmers I know who were sceptical of climate change are now saying they're really worried about the future of their businesses and production, it's just been completely brutal for our industry."