US midterm results a 'victory' for Canadians hopeful of tariff relief

It was the midterm result that many in Canada had hoped for - a Democratic sweep that was in part a repudiation by American voters of Donald Trump's tariff on close trade allies.

"I was doing cartwheels down the street," said Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Wednesday morning, calling it "a victory for Canada".

Tuesday night's result is unlikely to grant Canada relief from those tariffs any time soon, but there is anticipation that the political shifts could create a more favourable environment for Ottawa to get the best deal now that on-again-off-again trade talks are back on.

US voters cited affordability as a main concern heading into the midterms and a survey by the Cato Institute in September, external suggested that about 75% believe the tariffs have raised prices.

In states like Maine and Michigan, tariffs played a significant role in the hard-fought races.

In Maine, incumbent Republican Senator Susan Collins clashed with the White House over tariffs.

She successfully lobbied to have some duties that directly affected the state removed, including on road salt, refrigeration equipment and seaweed, but in the end lost to Democrat Troy Jackson.

A similar story played out in Michigan, where state's the automobile manufacturing industry is deeply intertwined with Canada's - and where Democratic candidate Abdul El-Sayed defeated Republican Mike Rogers.

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In Ohio, Senator-elect Sherrod Brown, who defeated Republican Jon Husted, called the levies a "disaster" and vowed to slash costs for voters by getting rid of them, external.

Democratic leaders like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, now newly empowered, have both pushed to rein in the tariffs on Canada in recent months.

Still, Democratic control of Congress might not do much to move the needle on tariffs. Trump's levies have been largely enacted using executive orders without approval from Congress.

And speaking to Fox News on Tuesday night, Trump touted his "ultimate power" of veto to shut down bills passed by Congress that he does not like.

Some Democratic lawmakers have also supported certain tariffs in the past as a way to protect American manufacturing jobs, and could back keeping some in place.

There are currently several layers of tariffs on Canada, notably on sectors like autos, steel, aluminium and forestry.

After trade talks between Ottawa and Washington collapsed in August, the Trump administration imposed an additional 50% tariff on $20bn (£15bn) worth of various Canadian goods, from dairy to cosmetics and furniture.

The US also declared a total import ban on motorcycles, whey protein and alcohol.

Canada retaliated by slapping the US with its own 50% "dollar-for-dollar" tariffs. Most provinces have also banned the sale of US alcohol in retaliation.

Trump had also previously threatened to escalate the trade war with Canada further by ⁠raising tariffs on sectors, including auto manufacturing, as of 1 January.

There were signs that his administration had become more sensitive to the optics of its tariffs on Canada in the run up to the election.

Just a few days before the vote, Trump told reporters that a trade deal is "very close" after speaking with Prime Minister Mark Carney.

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday evening, Carney said of US negotiators that "they're asking less and they're offering more" in recent discussions.

On Wednesday, US-Canada Trade Minister Dominic LeBlanc said the midterm results won't change anything in the short term, and dismissed speculation over what the new Congress might do when they're seated in the new year as "an interesting discussion at a faculty club luncheon".

"Our approach will not change and we don't intend to speculate on the approach being taken by the Americans," he said.

Pierre Poilievre, leader of Canada's Conservatives, said on Wednesday that "nobody controls Donald Trump".

But he said that midterms results show Canada has "massive leverage" given that the tariffs are broadly unpopular.

"We've got to use that goodwill to pressure for tariff-free trade," he said.

Trump may indeed feel more pressure to sign a deal with Canada now that American voters have clearly communicated their frustration, said Colin Robertson, a former Canadian diplomat and a fellow at the Canadian Global Affairs Institute.

"Will this change Trump's mind? It might, because he suffered such a beating at the polls."